Millions of seasonal migrants to miss out on voting

Ranchi, March 16
This, edited, was published here.

Anywhere between 7.5-50 million seasonal migrants across the country could miss out on voting this Lok Sabha election as it falls during the time a majority of people travel for manual labour.

Holding the election at a time outside the kharif crop means that a number equal to or more than the total electorate of Jharkhand – which has 19.95 million registered voters – may not be able to vote this election. India has a total of 814.5 million voters.

The figures were arrived at taking into consideration the 64th round of the National Sample Survey - which says that there 15 million short-term migrants, a 2009 UNDP paper which estimates there are 100 circular migrants and a 2011 survey by five NGOs that found only 48 per cent of its respondents had voted in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

The Election Commission, which took into consideration factors like board exams, rains and security risks while coming up with a window for elections did not factor in these people, who, according to the UNDP study by Priya Deshingkar and Shaheen Akter, contribute 10 per cent to the national GDP.

In areas where agriculture is dependent on the kharif crop, people leave their villages in October in search of work and return in time for rains, mostly by June. “These are the people who migrate to quarries, for construction work and so on. These people invariable do not have an election card or any similar documents [in their destination]. What we have seen is that a number of them travel short distances to vote in panchayat elections… But in Parliament elections, this local interest is less, so most of them do not come back to vote,” said Ravi Srivastava of the JNU’s Centre for the Study of Regional Development.

This observation is validated by a micro study done by the Rajasthan-based Aajeevika Bureau in cooperation with four other NGOs across 15 sites in five states with 686 people as respondents. “Data gathered on the question, “Did you vote in the last election?” revealed that 65 per cent of the respondents had voted in the last Panchayat elections. Compared to this, participation in Lok Sabha elections was 48 per cent…. There was a significant drop in participation rates from Panchayat to Lok Sabha elections. We find that as one moves from Panchayat to Vidhan Sabha to Lok Sabha elections, the participation rate comes down by 10.5 per cent at each step,” notes the report, titled Political Inclusion of Seasonal Migrant Workers in India.

Therefore, that this is a Lok Sabha election will only exacerbate the situation. The study goes on to note that, “The difference became more pronounced, rising to 14 per cent, when short distance movements were taken off the sample. In case of long distance movement, participation in election ranges from 59 per cent in case of Panchayat election to 31 per cent in Lok Sabha elections.” The report also notes that 54 per cent of its respondents returned home specifically to vote but 74 per cent of them did so for panchayat elections.

In a state like Jharkhand, from where migrants travel to faraway states like Punjab and Gujarat, the number of people returning to vote this April will be very less. “In places like West Bengal and Kerala, cadre-based political parties target people who have moved out and give them incentives to return to vote. However, there has been no such efforts in Jharkhand,” said Gopi Nath Ghosh of the state-based NGO JOHAR.

In terms of timing, this is a perfect storm. “As far as migration is concerned, this is probably the worst time to have elections. In our state for instance, lakhs of migrants have moved away from Southern Rajasthan along a corridor that leads to Surat and Ahmedabad,” said Santosh Poonia, one of the co-authors of the Aajeevika report.

These are people who are interested in taking part in the electoral process: 78 per cent of seasonal migrants polled by the Aajeevika study had Voter Identity Cared. It is not as if the people who conduct elections are unaware of this situation. “Technically, these migrants can register to vote in the places they go to. But I don’t think they do. What is the solution? I can’t think of any in the current circumstances,” said P.K. Jajoria, Chief Electoral Officer, Jharkhand.

The huge range – 15 to 100 million – in data about seasonal migration is because the National Sample Survey figures are a, “gross underestimate because the data do not properly count part-time occupations and short term migrations,” according to the UNDP study. For example, the NSS defines short-term migrants as, “those who had stayed away from the village/town for a period of 1 month or more but less than 6 months during the last 365 days for employment or in search of employment.” This excludes a bulk of seasonal migrants from one-crop Jharkhand, as people move out in October-November and return in June the next year.

(While researching for this story, I came across a piece by P. Sainath - the only other news report that looked at a national perspective. The realisation that he had looked into a topic that I had stumbled upon was probably one of the most proudest moments of my journalism career.)