Published here
Ranchi, April 3
Owing to the selection of up to four candidates whom the party hopes will win solely by riding the "Modi wave," the Bharatiya Janata Party - which started from a position of strength in the state this general elections - is at the moment looking at a realistic target of winning the same number of seats it had won in 2009.
The irony is that these four candidates - "outsiders" in their own ways - were selected over local leaders of the party who could have won the seat in their own right. They were overlooked to either install an individual preferred by the party's Delhi-based leadership or to influence the state's politics.
The selection of candidates in Hazaribagh, Palamu, Chatra and Jamshedpur means that the party is targeting a minimum of eight out of Jharkhand's 14 seats. This is the same number it won in 2009; BJP lost the Jamshedpur seat to the JVM(P) in a 2011 by-election.
BJP leaders are hoping that the Modi wave will pull these candidates over the line at some point during the three-phase election in the state. "The BJP wants to win all the seats in the state, but the minimum has been set at eight. We are hoping that it will be more than 10 seats by the end," said Abhay Singh, Jamshedpur-based Working Committee member of the BJP. The BJP and JVM(P) are the only parties contesting in all 14 seats.
This, for a party which went for the safety-first approach by re-nominating six of the eight men who had won in 2009 along with two contestants who lost. Devidhan Besra from Rajmahal and Arjun Munda from Jamshedpur were replaced. Munda, whose resignation from the Lok Sabha to become chief minister prompted the 2011 by-poll, decided to opt out to focus on state politics. There is no effort to attract youngsters or women: the only under-50 candidate is the 35-year-old Sunil Soren, contesting from Dumka; there are no women.
The party has cut out the flab and decided to give out only one message to workers - vote for Narendra Modi. "It really is a monologue from our side to the voters, asking them to make Narendra Modi Prime Minister. There is no other specific strategy; workers have been asked to focus on Modi and to make him Prime Minister," said senior leader Saryu Rai.
Though it sounds easy on paper, this is not so smooth on the ground. Rural votes are transferred by satraps or groups often based on caste, tribe and religion. Choosing individuals who may not fall in their good books may have actually worked against the party. "My understanding is that the Modi wave in Jharkhand is essentially an urban phenomenon. This will work well for us in Jamshedpur, because our candidate has good presence in the rural areas already. It is already a neck-and-neck battle out there; a good number of voters who support [JVM(P)'s] Ajoy Kumar will come over to us after Modi visits the city ahead of the April 17 polls," opined a leader.
Bidyut Baran Mahato in Jamshedpur is one of the two JMM men who defected to the BJP ahead of the polls to get tickets. The other was Hemlal Murmu, who replaces incumbent BJP MP Devidhan Besra in Rajmahal. "Yes, there was a feeling inside the party which said, "Let's weaken the JMM" this time. Jamshedpur and Rajmahal are two places where the BJP considered itself in a winning position; there was also a chance to hit the JMM and we took it," said Rai.
Jamshedpur brought to the fore the differences between the state unit of the party. Leaders like Rai and Raghubar Das were against Arjun Munda's recruitment of Mahato, arguing instead that Munda should himself contest against Ajoy Kumar. "Munda wants to be the chief minister and by bringing in Mahato, he killed two birds with a stone. Leaders like Saryu Rai want to pack Munda to Delhi; he wants to stay here," said a Munda loyalist.
Another decision that could backfire is the ticket given to outgoing Hazaribagh MP Yashwant Sinha's venture capitalist son Jayant Sinha. "Yashwant Sinha would not have won this time from Hazaribagh anyway. He wanted to avoid the embarrassment and use the opportunity to introduce his son," said a BJP leader not in the Sinha camp.
Palamu is the third constituency where massive discontent brews among the cadre. BJP workers are angry that three-time-MP Braj Mohan Ram was overlooked in favour of former Jharkjhand DGP V.D. Ram, who is not from the state and joined the party only in 2013.
At dalit-dominated Chatra, the choice of Bihar-based Sunil Singh - a Rajput and an RSS nominee - could end up troubling the BJP as the Congress as well as the JVM(P) have fielded OBCs. The denial of ticket to outgoing Chatra MP Inder Singh Namdhari - an Independent who had won with the support of BJP - could also hurt the BJP as Namdhari is actively working against Sunil Singh as well as V.D. Ram.
However, the Modi factor may work in subtle ways in rural areas. "Narendra Modi is of the Teli caste, so we are expecting the Telis to vote for the BJP in large numbers. This could eat into the votes of other candidates, too - like the Congress' Dhiraj Prasad Sahu, a Teli, in Chatra," said Abhay Singh. Saryu Rai believes the Telis are only a slice of the pie. "There is a social euphoria. A large number of backward classes will be voting for the BJP this time. They see that someone like them can rise to become the Prime Minister of the country," said Rai.
Apart from the four difficult ones, Koderma and Ranchi worry BJP leaders: the former, because BJP state president Ravindra Rai is contesting and the latter because every party in the fray is making a good fist of it. "It is unusual for a state president, who should be concentrating on making others win, to contest," said a leader, indicating that not everyone was not happy with Rai's nomination. In Ranchi, there are five resourceful candidates eating into each others' vote bank. It is too early to make who has the edge in the capital, where caste equations are still being sliced and diced ahead of the April 17 polls.
One region where the BJP wants to make significant gains is the Santhal Pargana, where the Santhals have never trusted the party. Arjun Munda has had to take a backseat there because of his identity and Godda MP Nishikant Dubey seems to be making a bid to be the party's face in the region. "In 2009, Durga Soren [since dead, the eldest son of Shibu Soren] took tribal votes away from the Congress, handing us a narrow victory. We have to see if Dubey can repeat his victory. To his credit, he has consistently taken on the JMM, vocally attacking its leaders," pointed out Saryu Rai. At the time of withdrawing support to the Arjun Munda government last year, Hemant Soren had accused Dubey of insulting his father Shibu and demanded an apology.
Rajmahal and Dumka are the two other constituencies in the Santhal Pargana. The BJP is hoping that it will gain as its opponents cancel itself out. In Rajmahal, Hemlal Murmu is a leader in his own right. Apart from that, allies JMM and Congress are at each others' throats over Hemant's poaching of former Youth Congress Rajmahal president Vijay Hansdak, son of a former Congress MP. In Dumka, site of the fight of the heavyweights, an effervescent BJP hopes that Shibu Soren and Babulal Marandi [JVM(P)] will cancel themselves out. "Billi ke ladayi mein bandhar lejayega," quipped a BJP leader.
The irony is that these four candidates - "outsiders" in their own ways - were selected over local leaders of the party who could have won the seat in their own right. They were overlooked to either install an individual preferred by the party's Delhi-based leadership or to influence the state's politics.
The selection of candidates in Hazaribagh, Palamu, Chatra and Jamshedpur means that the party is targeting a minimum of eight out of Jharkhand's 14 seats. This is the same number it won in 2009; BJP lost the Jamshedpur seat to the JVM(P) in a 2011 by-election.
BJP leaders are hoping that the Modi wave will pull these candidates over the line at some point during the three-phase election in the state. "The BJP wants to win all the seats in the state, but the minimum has been set at eight. We are hoping that it will be more than 10 seats by the end," said Abhay Singh, Jamshedpur-based Working Committee member of the BJP. The BJP and JVM(P) are the only parties contesting in all 14 seats.
This, for a party which went for the safety-first approach by re-nominating six of the eight men who had won in 2009 along with two contestants who lost. Devidhan Besra from Rajmahal and Arjun Munda from Jamshedpur were replaced. Munda, whose resignation from the Lok Sabha to become chief minister prompted the 2011 by-poll, decided to opt out to focus on state politics. There is no effort to attract youngsters or women: the only under-50 candidate is the 35-year-old Sunil Soren, contesting from Dumka; there are no women.
The party has cut out the flab and decided to give out only one message to workers - vote for Narendra Modi. "It really is a monologue from our side to the voters, asking them to make Narendra Modi Prime Minister. There is no other specific strategy; workers have been asked to focus on Modi and to make him Prime Minister," said senior leader Saryu Rai.
Though it sounds easy on paper, this is not so smooth on the ground. Rural votes are transferred by satraps or groups often based on caste, tribe and religion. Choosing individuals who may not fall in their good books may have actually worked against the party. "My understanding is that the Modi wave in Jharkhand is essentially an urban phenomenon. This will work well for us in Jamshedpur, because our candidate has good presence in the rural areas already. It is already a neck-and-neck battle out there; a good number of voters who support [JVM(P)'s] Ajoy Kumar will come over to us after Modi visits the city ahead of the April 17 polls," opined a leader.
Bidyut Baran Mahato in Jamshedpur is one of the two JMM men who defected to the BJP ahead of the polls to get tickets. The other was Hemlal Murmu, who replaces incumbent BJP MP Devidhan Besra in Rajmahal. "Yes, there was a feeling inside the party which said, "Let's weaken the JMM" this time. Jamshedpur and Rajmahal are two places where the BJP considered itself in a winning position; there was also a chance to hit the JMM and we took it," said Rai.
Jamshedpur brought to the fore the differences between the state unit of the party. Leaders like Rai and Raghubar Das were against Arjun Munda's recruitment of Mahato, arguing instead that Munda should himself contest against Ajoy Kumar. "Munda wants to be the chief minister and by bringing in Mahato, he killed two birds with a stone. Leaders like Saryu Rai want to pack Munda to Delhi; he wants to stay here," said a Munda loyalist.
Another decision that could backfire is the ticket given to outgoing Hazaribagh MP Yashwant Sinha's venture capitalist son Jayant Sinha. "Yashwant Sinha would not have won this time from Hazaribagh anyway. He wanted to avoid the embarrassment and use the opportunity to introduce his son," said a BJP leader not in the Sinha camp.
Palamu is the third constituency where massive discontent brews among the cadre. BJP workers are angry that three-time-MP Braj Mohan Ram was overlooked in favour of former Jharkjhand DGP V.D. Ram, who is not from the state and joined the party only in 2013.
At dalit-dominated Chatra, the choice of Bihar-based Sunil Singh - a Rajput and an RSS nominee - could end up troubling the BJP as the Congress as well as the JVM(P) have fielded OBCs. The denial of ticket to outgoing Chatra MP Inder Singh Namdhari - an Independent who had won with the support of BJP - could also hurt the BJP as Namdhari is actively working against Sunil Singh as well as V.D. Ram.
However, the Modi factor may work in subtle ways in rural areas. "Narendra Modi is of the Teli caste, so we are expecting the Telis to vote for the BJP in large numbers. This could eat into the votes of other candidates, too - like the Congress' Dhiraj Prasad Sahu, a Teli, in Chatra," said Abhay Singh. Saryu Rai believes the Telis are only a slice of the pie. "There is a social euphoria. A large number of backward classes will be voting for the BJP this time. They see that someone like them can rise to become the Prime Minister of the country," said Rai.
Apart from the four difficult ones, Koderma and Ranchi worry BJP leaders: the former, because BJP state president Ravindra Rai is contesting and the latter because every party in the fray is making a good fist of it. "It is unusual for a state president, who should be concentrating on making others win, to contest," said a leader, indicating that not everyone was not happy with Rai's nomination. In Ranchi, there are five resourceful candidates eating into each others' vote bank. It is too early to make who has the edge in the capital, where caste equations are still being sliced and diced ahead of the April 17 polls.
One region where the BJP wants to make significant gains is the Santhal Pargana, where the Santhals have never trusted the party. Arjun Munda has had to take a backseat there because of his identity and Godda MP Nishikant Dubey seems to be making a bid to be the party's face in the region. "In 2009, Durga Soren [since dead, the eldest son of Shibu Soren] took tribal votes away from the Congress, handing us a narrow victory. We have to see if Dubey can repeat his victory. To his credit, he has consistently taken on the JMM, vocally attacking its leaders," pointed out Saryu Rai. At the time of withdrawing support to the Arjun Munda government last year, Hemant Soren had accused Dubey of insulting his father Shibu and demanded an apology.
Rajmahal and Dumka are the two other constituencies in the Santhal Pargana. The BJP is hoping that it will gain as its opponents cancel itself out. In Rajmahal, Hemlal Murmu is a leader in his own right. Apart from that, allies JMM and Congress are at each others' throats over Hemant's poaching of former Youth Congress Rajmahal president Vijay Hansdak, son of a former Congress MP. In Dumka, site of the fight of the heavyweights, an effervescent BJP hopes that Shibu Soren and Babulal Marandi [JVM(P)] will cancel themselves out. "Billi ke ladayi mein bandhar lejayega," quipped a BJP leader.
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