Scramble for wins polarise Jharkhand further

This was published, edited, here.

Though it more than doubled its seat tally when compared to the 2009 assembly elections - 18 to 37 - the BJP has ended up not being satisfied with its performance in Jharkhand.

The BJP's final tally of 37 is unprecedented: the highest number of seats any party in the state held was when the BJP had the 32 it took away from the Bihar assembly on creation of Jharkhand in November, 2000. This time, the BJP has managed to have a footprint across the state - unlike the JMM, confined mostly to the East and South with no presence in Palamu - thus claiming a certain moral right to rule Jharkhand.

However, the NDA's numbers are lower than what major exit polls predicted: from 43-51 for the BJP alone to 61 in all with the BJP's alliance with the AJSU Party and LJP. At the end of the day, the BJP-AJSU alliance has just one seat more than what is required for a majority in the 81-member House.

So, where did the BJP's calculations go wrong? It looks like the party underestimated the JMM's understanding of Jharkhand. To put it more bluntly, the BJP did not understand the adivasis as the JMM does.

Of the 28 ST-reserved seats in the state, the BJP has won 11. This only an increase of two over the number it won in 2009. On the other hand, the JMM has managed to win 13 this time; it had only won 10 in 2009. The JMM's total number of seats went up by only one from 2009, to 19 now.

What this essentially means is that the JMM is more of an adivasi party now. The JMM lost three seats in the Santhal Pargana region but made sure it won the same number of ST-reserved seats there as it had won in 2009. It made significant inroads into its former stronghold of Kolhan - the heart of the statehood movement - by winning two ST seats more than in 2009.

The JMM's return to Kolhan is what seems to have damaged the BJP the most - it lost two potential CM candidates in the process in Arjun Munda and Chaibasa candidate J.B. Tubid, former state Home Secretary. The JMM surrendered its Ghatsila seat, but reclaimed Manoharpur, Majhgaon and Chakradharpur from the BJP - all ST seats.

The BJP may have increased its tally in the Santhal Pargana from two to seven, but only two of its seats are ST-reserved. This is still a major achievement - but it also means that the state as a whole seems to have been divided along the adivasi/ non-adivasi polarities: the Congress has failed to win a single ST seat despite actively wooing the adivasis. The result is that the number of ST seats won by anyone other than JMM or BJP has dropped from nine to four this election.

The BJP's major gains seems to have come from the weakening of the Congress (14 to six), RJD (five to zero) and the JVM-P (11 to 8). The BJP was counting on the JVM to do worse; Marandi has hurt the BJP by clawing back from the abyss. However, the overall weakening of the JVM would have done the BJP a world of good - the former had the highest vote share in 2009, at 28.4 per cent. The BJP now has 31.3 per cent; the JMM, 20.5 per cent.

No Independent has won the election this time, but the BJP lost five seats to regional partie; in a sign of what could have been, the BJP's candidates came second in 28 constituencies. With the help of some smart caste arthmetic, the BSP managed to win Hussainabad. At Jaganathpur, the party could not overcome Madhu Kora's popularity combined with his wife's image as an accessible politician. The party could not win in Kolebira despite Jharkhand Party leader Anosh Ekka is in jail on murder charges. At Bhawanathpur, Bhanu Pratap Shahi had canvassed for votes claiming he would go over to the BJP if he won.

The BJP seems to have got its strategy of Muslim polarisation only partially right. Despite facing a tough contest, it managed to retain Rajmahal, which has a significant number of Muslim voters. At Pakur, Madhupur and Jamtara, the BJP hoped the presence of multiple Muslim candidates or Muslim-favoured parties would help its cause, but it was successful only in Madhupur. At Torpa, which has a large number of Christian voters, the BJP hoped its Hindu candidate would win; the JMM retained the seat.

What this election has exposed is the cracks within Jharkhand - as the BJP aggressively pushed for a majority, it brought together the caste Hindus in its support. However, that left a space for the JMM to bring on identity politics and walk away with the adivasi votes. It was not easy for the JMM either - it lost Tundi, a stronghold which was once the base of Shibu Soren's activism against moneylenders.

The BJP's first move was to spread the rumour that it would consider a non-tribal CM. The JMM and Hemant Soren made use of the opportunity, whipped up sentiments about the BJP's alleged plans to amend the state's tenancy laws and portrayed the BJP as a party of outsiders. The results seems to have been a general adivasi aversion to the BJP. This BJP-JMM duality could also be the future of Jharkhand, especially if Babulal Marandi ends up supporting a BJP-led government.