Jharkhand: guide to results

Published here
Ranchi, April 15

The BJP in Jharkhand will go into counting day confident that, on paper, it remains in contest in all 14 seats.

However, by making the elections all about itself - the party contested alone, and along with the JVM(P), is the only one to contest in all seats - the BJP state unit is flirting with the failure tag. Even one less than eight, which was the number of seats won in 2009, would have the panic bells going off.

Party leaders are confident of winning more than 10 seats. "We are guaranteed 12 seats. Giridih and Rajmahal are the two in which we are facing a tough contest," said BJP leader and MLA Raghubar Das. The Congress says it, along with alliance partner JMM, has a chance in eight constituencies. "I think we can win in Ranchi, Lohardaga, Hazaribagh, Dhanbad, Godda, Giridih, Rajmahal and Dumka," said state Congress General Secretary Shailesh Sinha.

There clearly cannot be a universe where both the BJP and Congress can go home happy. The confusion is evident in the exit poll results: NDTV thinks BJP will win 12 and leave the Congress only one, while Times Now estimates the Congress and JMM will win six. Both agree that former chief minister Madhu Kora's wife Geeta will win from Singhbhum.

Early warning could come from two constituencies - Giridih and Rajmahal, which both sides admit to be unknown territories. The BJP, in a "direct fight" with the JMM in both, knows winning the two will make it unstoppable. If the latter wins in Giridih, it will be a major blow for the BJP, whose incumbent MP won by 94,738 votes in 2009. It will also mean that the JMM votebank is robust, having withstood an assault from alliance partner Congress, whose leader Rajendra Prasad wanted the seat for his son. A JMM win will also mean the rise of a new Mahato leader in Jagarnath Mahato. That Rajmahal - and not Dumka - should be the barometer of Santhal Pargana is curious: BJP's victory hinges on adivasi votes in the constituency, which has a significant number of Muslims. The party hopes that former JMM leader Hemlal Murmu can get some tribal votes while hoping the RSS, which has been active in the area for about 25 years, can use the hype around Narendra Modi to rally Sanskritised adivasis.

However, even if the BJP completes a clean sweep, it may not be evidence enough of a pan-Jharkhand "Modi Wave": the difficult terrain, demographics and cultural differences in the state mean imposing a wave was always out of the question for the BJP. Even winning Dumka - stronghold of the JMM - may be interpreted as a Babulal Marandi effect, with the JVM(P) leader taking away JMM's votes, leading to a BJP victory.

However, there may be a Modi effect on view. The tribals remained largely disinterested in Narendra Modi - in fact, the Sarna Samiti, widely perceived to be moving towards the BJP, supported Congress candidates in Ranchi and Lohardaga. This has been used by the BJP in the Santhal Pargana to mobilise the non-tribal "diku" vote of the caste Hindus. The hype of a Wave was also used to activate cadres and banish disquiet - in Palamu and Hazaribagh, those dissenting against "outsider" candidates eventually fell in line to work for a Modi victory.

If the BJP candidates in Ranchi and Jamshedpur win, it could be evidence of a Modi Wave in these largely urban constituencies. These two constituencies are significant because the BJP was up against the wall in both places - Jamshedpur, where its candidate lost his deposit in a 2011 bye poll and whose incumbent MP is a very popular; Ranchi, where AJSU's Sudesh Mahto was poised to eat into BJP's Ram Tahal Choudhary's Mahato base.

The BJP also claims that the poll percentages going up in the state - from 50.97 in 2009 to 63.55 now - is because of a Modi Wave. While one cannot verify this claim yet, there remains the possibility that Muslims voted in large numbers too, by getting women to come out and vote. A BJP leader claimed caste Hindus had voted to counter that. "Only 52 per cent Muslims voted in Jamshedpur. The rest were women and youth coming out to vote for NaMo," he said, explaining how polling percentage went up from 51.12 in 2009 to 66.38 this time there.

Apart from Geeta Kora in Singhbhum, smaller parties stand a chance to spoil the BJP's party. The CPI (ML) Liberation has mobilised the dalits of Koderma effectively. In Khunti, no one really understands the impact of the alleged support extended by left wing extremist PLFI to Anosh Ekka.

Sonia gets lukewarm response at Ramgarh

Ramgarh, April 4

Congress President Sonia Gandhi addressed a poorly-attended rally in Ramgarh town on Friday, and though she never addressed Narendra Modi by name, delivered a severe criticism of his Prime Ministerial ambitions.

During most of her 11-minute speech to request votes for the party's Hazaribagh candidate Saurabh Narain Singh, Sonia matter-of-factly listed the achievements during 10 years of the UPA rule. "These things were not easy to do. The Opposition placed hurdles before us each step of the way. However, nothing will stop us from helping the poor," said Sonia.

The meeting, scheduled to begin at 12 in the afternoon, began half an hour late. However, that was no relief for the organisers, who were frantically exhorting people to walk into the barricaded venue. That the rally happened around jum'ah hours didn't help matters. By the time Sonia's chopper descended, an unenthusiastic crowd - quarter the size Rahul Gandhi had drawn for his cancelled Gumla rally of April 1 - had turned up.

"Others say they will make magic overnight. Has it come to it that one has to tell the most lies to become the Prime Minister of this great country? There are people who will go to any extent to capture the chair," said Sonia.

Sonia said that the Congress does not lie to the electorate. "We have fulfilled each promise made in our 2009 manifesto. The same will happen for our 2014 one: we do not lie; we will complete each point," she said.

Earlier in her speech, Sonia also referred to violence without making it clear whether she was talking of Narendra Modi or Maoists. "Any kind of violence is a threat to our social fabric," she said. She then went on to say that those who have a history of violence should come into the mainstream.

Keeping in mind she was talking in the coal town of Ramgarh and referred to its coal workers. "Remember that it was the government of Indira Gandhi that nationalised coal mines. The Congress has always kept in mind the people who work in mines," she said.

Though short, the speech was not without its gaffes. Sonia addressed Jharkhand Finance Minister and Congressman Rajendra Prasad Singh - present onstage - as Rajendra Pratap Singh. At one point, she used the word "vanvasi," a term preferred by the RSS when it talks about the adivasis.

April 1; Congress does not disappoint

Gumla, April 1

After making the crowd wait for over four hours on Tuesday at the Aerodrome maidan in the town's outskirts, Congress leaders announced that Rahul Gandhi would not be making an appearance due to a malfunctioning helicopter.

It was a major embarrassment for the state unit of the party, as they had managed to draw crowds to match Narendra Modi's March 27 rally at the same venue but had to do without their star campaigner.

The irony was not lost on some people. "I knew these political parties would want to celebrate April 1 in some way," said Amit Toppo (21).

Pradesh Congress Committee's spokesperson Shailesh Sinha said a helicopter malfunction had forced the cancellation. "After his rally I Godda, there was a stopover at Ranchi. The pilot noticed smoke while trying to take off, so another aircraft was called for," he said. The Special Protection Group delayed things further. "The second aircraft was single-engine and SPG was not happy with it. By the time approvals came through, it was late. He had to leave at 5 PM," said Sinha.

Rahul also lost a chance to address crowds from the same site from which Rajiv Gandhi campaigned for Congress candidate Sumati Oraon in 1984.

Rahul was scheduled to arrive at the venue at 2 PM, though the district unit of the party had announced that he would arrive at 1 PM. There was a festive atmosphere on the grounds, not least because it was the eve of Sahrul, one of the most important adivasi festivals. However, as time wore on, people started leaving to go to the market and to prepare for Sahrul.

A large number of people stayed on the periphery of the three-tier security enclosure, so it was difficult to estimate how large the assembly was. "This is bigger than Modi's rally; the enclosure was smaller for that one," said Chama Bara (22). Lohardaga, the constituency in which Gumla falls, has a significant number of voters from the Oraon tribe. The Christian converts among them generally prefer the Congress. On the other hand, caste Hindus usually stick together. "This is nothing compared to the Modi rally. It took place on a [CPI-Maoist] bandh, too," said Vikram Kumar (18).

Congress candidate Rameshwar Oraon and Geetashree Oraon, minister in the state cabinet and the legislator from Gumla's Sisai, were among the leaders who tried to keep the crowd engaged during the four-hour wait. "My vote will still go to the Congress, but I am now worried about the party's chances here," said Krishna Tana Bhagat, part of a community that has always supported the Congress.

Some, however, went away happy. "I usually make Rs. 700 after a day's work. Today, just by standing here, I've made more. I'm out of stock!" said Nagendra Gope, who sold ice cream cones at the venue.

Ranchi: Local issues, not coal, to work against Subodh

Ranchi, March 13

Former Union Minister Subodh Kant Sahay, removed from the cabinet after his name cropped up in the coal block allocation scam, breathed a sigh of relief after the Congress on Thursday granted him a chance to complete a hat trick from Ranchi.

"I am happy that the Congress High Command had decided to let me contest. I am also indebted to the people who have supported me of late," said Sahay to news channels.

He was referring to the support Ranchi-based Congress leaders, various organisations and even the media had extended to him since the day he did not feature in the first list of candidates released by the Congress. The party had left Ranchi for later and reportedly even considered a celebrity - Mohd. Azharuddin's and Nagma's names did the rounds - for the seat.

Sahay immediately rushed to Delhi along with supporters and lobbied intensely for the seat. While he was always guaranteed a tough fight this time, the uncertainty and the outpouring of support that followed was unexpected. Mostly because the perception has been that Sahay, Congress' lone MP from Jharkand in the 15th Lok Sabha, did not do enough for the state and constituency this tenure.

His involvement in the coal scam was in relation to brother Sudhir Kant Sahay, who was allegedly involved with SKS Ispat and Power - the company on behalf of which Sahay wrote a recommendation letter to PM Manmohan Singh. Within 24 hours of receiving the letter, the company was in line to receive a coal block.

With the coal scam not getting the importance it should be in Jharkhand, the history of his brother Sunil Kumar Sahay's is likely to be an issue his opposition will use against Sahay. The then-minister had successfully lobbied for Sunil to be made candidate from Ranchi's Hatia in a 2012 assembly bypoll. Even though the poll was necessitated by the death of a Congress legislator, Sunil lost, unable to even recover his security deposit.

Another topic that his opponents are likely to use against Sahay is the seizure of money - allegedly intended for distribution among voters - from a Ranchi hotel ahead of the municipal corporation polls in April last year. Former Mayor Rama Khalkho, who had joined the Congress before the elections, was arrested and sent to jail. No charges have been brought against Subodh, who brought Khalkho into the Congress and who was present with her at the hotel minutes before a police party raided the place.

Dubey goes to TMC; Congress makes Sahay wait

Ranchi, March 9

Former minister in the Hemant Soren cabinet and Congress legislator from Vishrampur Chandra Shekhar "Dadai" Dubey joined the Trinamool Congress in Kolkata on Sunday after being denied the Dhanbad seat.

Dubey's name did not figure in the list of six candidates released by the Congress on Saturday and he promptly went over to the TMC, which offered him the Dhanbad ticket.

It was another coup for the TMC, which has been going about acquiring disgruntled leaders all over the state. Dubey is the party's third legislator; TMC is yet to have even a state unit. However, sources close to him said he would soon resign as a legislator as the anti-defection law would apply.

There were more surprises from the Congress when it came to distribution of candidatures - the decision on the Ranchi seat has been delayed while the Pradesh Congress President would not contest. The INC, scheduled to contest from eight constituencies, announced only six seats in its first list.

Subodh Kant Sahay, the Ranchi legislator and lone MP of the party from Jharkhand, did not find a place in the list on Saturday. "We are all quite surprised that the party was not decisive and seems to be hesitating on declaring his candidature," said a senior leader who did not want to be quoted. There is a perception that Sahay, a former Union minister, did not perform well this tenure but most party leaders assumed that he would be retained. Regional news channels reported that an individual from outside the state could be the party's nominee this time. A delegation of Sahay's supporters returned from Delhi on Sunday after lobbying for their leader.

Also missing from the Congress list was PCC president Sukhdeo Bhagat, widely tipped to be the party's candidate from Lohardaga. "The highcommand has decided that the party presidents of Jharkhand and Bihar should concentrate on campaigning," said Shailendra Sinha, PCC spokesperson. Lohardaga has been entrusted with Rameshwar Oraon, Chairperson of the National Commission of Scheduled Tribes, who won from the constituency in 2004 but lost in 2009.

Meanwhile, Savita Mahato, widow of former deputy CM Sudhir Mahato has excused herself from being the JMM's Jamshedpur candidate. She cited personal reasons. Recently-widowed, Mahato was initally the JMM nominee for the Rajya Sabha elections this year before the party withdrew her candidature.

JMM gains one but loses two in three days

Ranchi, March 7

With senior leader Hemlal Murmu from the party resigning on Friday, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has gained a Youth Congress member but lost a sitting MP and MLA over the last three days.

The JMM inducted Vijay Hansda, son of late Congress leader Thomas Hansda on Wednesday with the intention of giving him the ticket for Rajmahal Lok Sabha seat, won twice by his father. The Congress protested, with Pradesh President Sukhdeo Bhagat meeting chief minister Hemant Soren the same day.

Worse was to come, with JMM's Barhait MLA Hemlal Murmu - who won from Rajmahal in 2004 - resigning from the party on Friday. He is reportedly in talks with the BJP. "I have not decided yet as to whether I should contest or which party to join. I will be talking to my supporters in the next few days to decide my future," he said over phone. Murmu, a minister in the 2010-'13 Arjun Munda cabinet, has been unhappy ever since CM Soren refused to induct him in his council of ministers.

On Thursday, outgoing Palamu MP Kameshwar Baitha left the JMM to join the BJP. Baitha, a former Maoist who had the most number of cases in the 15th Lok Sabha, tried to claim that he had left on his own despite the JMM sending out unambiguous signals that it did not want him around anymore. "I have come to the BJP after serious thought. There is a wave in favour of the party and I want to work for it and Narendra Modi. This is not for a seat; I will be here even if they do not give me one," he said.

The BJP is likely to field former state DGP V.D. Ram from SC-reserved Palamu. The JMM will not contest from the constituency this time, with the seat going over to the Congress - or even the RJD - according to the UPA's seat-sharing arrangement.

Rahul Gandhi & The Long View

February 14

There was a recent New Yorker piece about Barack Obama which talked extensively of how the US President always thinks of what his actions mean for the future. David Remnick quotes Obama aide Valerie Jarrett when he writes, “And then she said something that I’ve come to think of as the Administration’s mantra: “The President always takes the long view.””

Now, I don’t think Rahul Gandhi is quite the Obama. Nevertheless, I believe there is a lot of this “long view” thought process in a lot of what he does.

This belief stems from an interaction with someone whom I believe knows the Congress Vice President’s plans well. At one point in the meeting, he named Bhatta-Parsaul without being prompted. After visiting the villages and writing on his election campaign meeting for the Jewar assembly seat they fall within, I had described in February 2012 that it was the, “site of his most daring political escapade.” I also wrote that since Rahul’s visit, “….Jewar, held by the BSP's Horam Singh, has become the Congress's to lose.”

Yet, the Congress lost the seat to the BSP in 2012. I mentioned this to the individual. He said that the social conditions of the area were an obstacle. So I asked, tongue-in-cheek, “Doesn’t Rahul Gandhi transcend caste?” To me at least, the answer was surprising. “No,” the man said, in all seriousness, “but we are working on it. Give us 25 years.”

Twenty five years. Five election cycles. In Jharkhand, where I work, it’s an appropriate collective noun of chief ministers. Only vision documents and the Planning Commission talk in terms of 25 years, not politicians.

There is this maddening snail-ness about Rahul Gandhi; even regression. In September 2009, I wrote that, “Rahul Gandhi went to JNU on Tuesday for a bout. He brought along the paraphernalia too: armed guards, Member of parliament Meenakshi Natarajan’s research and a truckload of tenacity.” That night’s interaction with the students of the Jawaharlal Nehru University was an inspiring performance, in a campus that stopped his grandmother at the gates.

At JNU too, he talked of the long-term future of the country. More importantly, he seemed to have done his homework and come up with answers. On the other hand, at Ranchi in February 2014, he was asked about some of the same problems that he was faced with when he visited in September 2012. He did not have solutions and worse – as with the issue of devolving power to the panchayats - had lost the opportunity to make a change in the meanwhile, using the fact that the Congress now shares power with the JMM here and even handles the relevant portfolio.

In spite of all this - and the Times Now interview, one must add – there is a constant about Rahul Gandhi. It has been his passion for organisational elections within the Congress. His party’s spin doctors will point out that the Aam Aadmi Party merely copied what Mr. Gandhi has been trying to do for a very long time, but that the Congress is a far bigger, more stubborn organisation. The individual I met claims that the Congress V-P is a different man altogether when discussing this organisational revamp: he knows its details intimately and is more passionate. After all, the pre-election advertisements featuring him have so far been solely about the new blood in the party. In that sense, also taking into account how he has “guided” government policy of late, he performs more as a Sarsanghchalak than anything else.

Probably the main reason why Mr. Gandhi can think in terms of 25 years is because he trusts the stability of his dynastic relationship with the Congress. It is therefore ironical that he tries to use that position to bring in youngsters without a background in electoral politics. During this interaction I keep referring to, someone turned to the individual holding court and asked, “Why are we not seeing more Rahul Gandhis?” His reaction was to turn to me and ask, “You’re from Kerala, right? Tell them how it is working so well out there!” So much for trying to mask your identity and believing you had developed a neutral accent.

All through that interaction, whenever the topic of organisational elections came up, this individual would go back to describing Kerala. He talked glowingly of the youngsters with no previous electoral politics experience taking to the Youth Congress. I have since come to believe that Kerala is Rahul Gandhi’s Saranda.

The Saranda forest in Jharkhand’s West Singhbhum district was till recently a no-go area for representatives of the Indian state, with the CPI-Maoist operating its Eastern Regional Bureau out of it. Since, a unique experiment where massive developmental effort follows armed action has helped the state establish its presence within the Sal forest. Saranda is viewed as a pilot study for left wing extremism-affected areas. Its failure will not be in isolation; it could mean the scrapping of similar plans for other areas and starting afresh.

So far, Kerala has held. But then, Kerala – where the disciplined, cadre-d CPI-M is more than just a political party – is no Uttar Pradesh.

Even as the Rahul project proceeds languidly with its 25-year-deadline, the Congress has elections to win. It is frustrating covering Mr. Gandhi’s recent events as a reporter – almost everything is behind-closed-doors and the Congress V-P hardly says anything. Instead, he listens. He is gentle, warm, sensitive, inquisitive. But at the end of the day, he ends up being a glorified shrink, to whom people from all over are invited to come and vent.

It has got to a point where reporters are asking, “What just happened?” to each other at the end of Rahul’s interactive sessions. Which is what the bureau chief of an English daily asked me after Mr. Gandhi’s recent Ranchi visit. The truism-laden headlines are an indication: “In Jharkhand, Rahul holds meeting with women tribals,” “Rahul Gandhi meets railway porters, trackmen, promises to solve their problems.”

At the end of his interactions, there is always this hope – among his audience as well as reporters – that there will be a rabbit out of Rahul Gandhi’s hat. That he will make a grand promise, offer some solutions. Instead, he takes it all in, becoming a repository for all things India. Mr. Gandhi surely intends to use it over those 25 years. However, winter is coming.

Empower Us, To Empower You

This piece was published, edited, here.

February 7

They say a man who listens is a prized catch. By that indicator alone, Rahul Gandhi's stock should rise.

After all, it is not everyday we see a political leader asking people what they want. Almost never are our adivasi women posed such a question.

On Friday morning at Ranchi's Hotel Ashok, Rahul Gandhi listened. He even asked party general secretary B.K. Hariprasad not to interrupt when the latter tried to make a woman cut her speech short. He listened through complaints, he chuckled at anecdotes.

However, he answered what he wanted to. There was of course the talk of empowerment, on a loop. Worse, often his answers were twice removed from the questions.

Women stood up to ask micro-problems. There were several questions about anganwadi sevikas, parateachers, adivasi women's inheritance rights under tenancy laws, human trafficking, branding of women as witches: all Jharkhand-specific issues expected to be asked by adivasi women.

Yet, Rahul answered by throwing back stock answers at them - MNREGA, Right to Food - missing a chance to make clear that he has understood the problems of the adivasis with some nuance and to offer solutions.

Probably the only direct promise he made to the 800-odd women during the one-hour interactive session was that he would pressure the state government, of which the Congress is a coalition partner, to give more power to panchayats.

But that is not new, even for Rahul. On day one of his two-day visit to the state in September 2012, Rahul had met with panchayat representatives, who raised the demand of devolution of power. At that point in time, the BJP and JMM were leading the government here. Since then, the Congress has come to share power - even handling the relevant portfolio - but little has been done for the panchayats.

Maybe the Congress Vice President has taken on the empowerment of women as his new project, probably evident from the absence of a meeting exclusively with youngsters during his Jharkhand visit. He is already miles ahead of his counterparts when he shows a willingness to listen and talk to the most deprived of this country. But there is no evidence yet that he can walk the talk.