Jharkhand: guide to results

Published here
Ranchi, April 15

The BJP in Jharkhand will go into counting day confident that, on paper, it remains in contest in all 14 seats.

However, by making the elections all about itself - the party contested alone, and along with the JVM(P), is the only one to contest in all seats - the BJP state unit is flirting with the failure tag. Even one less than eight, which was the number of seats won in 2009, would have the panic bells going off.

Party leaders are confident of winning more than 10 seats. "We are guaranteed 12 seats. Giridih and Rajmahal are the two in which we are facing a tough contest," said BJP leader and MLA Raghubar Das. The Congress says it, along with alliance partner JMM, has a chance in eight constituencies. "I think we can win in Ranchi, Lohardaga, Hazaribagh, Dhanbad, Godda, Giridih, Rajmahal and Dumka," said state Congress General Secretary Shailesh Sinha.

There clearly cannot be a universe where both the BJP and Congress can go home happy. The confusion is evident in the exit poll results: NDTV thinks BJP will win 12 and leave the Congress only one, while Times Now estimates the Congress and JMM will win six. Both agree that former chief minister Madhu Kora's wife Geeta will win from Singhbhum.

Early warning could come from two constituencies - Giridih and Rajmahal, which both sides admit to be unknown territories. The BJP, in a "direct fight" with the JMM in both, knows winning the two will make it unstoppable. If the latter wins in Giridih, it will be a major blow for the BJP, whose incumbent MP won by 94,738 votes in 2009. It will also mean that the JMM votebank is robust, having withstood an assault from alliance partner Congress, whose leader Rajendra Prasad wanted the seat for his son. A JMM win will also mean the rise of a new Mahato leader in Jagarnath Mahato. That Rajmahal - and not Dumka - should be the barometer of Santhal Pargana is curious: BJP's victory hinges on adivasi votes in the constituency, which has a significant number of Muslims. The party hopes that former JMM leader Hemlal Murmu can get some tribal votes while hoping the RSS, which has been active in the area for about 25 years, can use the hype around Narendra Modi to rally Sanskritised adivasis.

However, even if the BJP completes a clean sweep, it may not be evidence enough of a pan-Jharkhand "Modi Wave": the difficult terrain, demographics and cultural differences in the state mean imposing a wave was always out of the question for the BJP. Even winning Dumka - stronghold of the JMM - may be interpreted as a Babulal Marandi effect, with the JVM(P) leader taking away JMM's votes, leading to a BJP victory.

However, there may be a Modi effect on view. The tribals remained largely disinterested in Narendra Modi - in fact, the Sarna Samiti, widely perceived to be moving towards the BJP, supported Congress candidates in Ranchi and Lohardaga. This has been used by the BJP in the Santhal Pargana to mobilise the non-tribal "diku" vote of the caste Hindus. The hype of a Wave was also used to activate cadres and banish disquiet - in Palamu and Hazaribagh, those dissenting against "outsider" candidates eventually fell in line to work for a Modi victory.

If the BJP candidates in Ranchi and Jamshedpur win, it could be evidence of a Modi Wave in these largely urban constituencies. These two constituencies are significant because the BJP was up against the wall in both places - Jamshedpur, where its candidate lost his deposit in a 2011 bye poll and whose incumbent MP is a very popular; Ranchi, where AJSU's Sudesh Mahto was poised to eat into BJP's Ram Tahal Choudhary's Mahato base.

The BJP also claims that the poll percentages going up in the state - from 50.97 in 2009 to 63.55 now - is because of a Modi Wave. While one cannot verify this claim yet, there remains the possibility that Muslims voted in large numbers too, by getting women to come out and vote. A BJP leader claimed caste Hindus had voted to counter that. "Only 52 per cent Muslims voted in Jamshedpur. The rest were women and youth coming out to vote for NaMo," he said, explaining how polling percentage went up from 51.12 in 2009 to 66.38 this time there.

Apart from Geeta Kora in Singhbhum, smaller parties stand a chance to spoil the BJP's party. The CPI (ML) Liberation has mobilised the dalits of Koderma effectively. In Khunti, no one really understands the impact of the alleged support extended by left wing extremist PLFI to Anosh Ekka.

What Saranda means for the Congress

Published here
Manoharpur, April 9

Moransingh Bodra (25) smiled from ear to ear when asked whether he would vote this election. "Abhi toh bindaas hai," said the youngster, returning on his bicycle from the Thursday market in Bhalulata, on the Orissa side of the state's border with Jharkhand. His two other friends disappeared into the background without a word when they saw a stranger.

That moment encapsulated the mood within the 850 sq km Saranda forest in Jharkhand's West Singhbhum:an exuberance for newly-acquired freedoms mixed with a distrust of what the future brings. Moransingh is from Tirilposi, a village within Digha panchayat of Manoharpur block, once the site of permanent structures that constituted the Eastern Regional Bureau headquarters of the CPI-Maoist.

The Congress is hoping that the people of the Singhbhum Lok Sabha constituency will reward it on April 17 for the Saranda Development Plan, inaugurated on December 2, 2011. The Rs. 250 crore SDP came after a massive operation by security forces which sanitised the area. A total of 36,215 people would benefit from the plan, for 56 villages in six panchayats of Manoharpur block.

In a lot of ways, this election is a landmark one for Saranda: villages like Tirilposi were forced to boycott elections during the 10-odd years that the Maoists made the Sal forest their home. Voters' identity cards have reportedly been issued even in some of the previously-unrecognised Jharkhandi villages, about 110 in number. En route Digha village, this reporter came across Birendra Kumar, the Block Development Officer, returning after a visit in a car, with no security - a far cry from late 2011, when a Deputy Commissioner reached Tirilposi for the first time in 15 years.

However, thanks to strife within the local unit of the Congress, the party may not be able to scoop up the benefit of the SDP.

On April 5, Union Minister for Rural Development Jairam Ramesh, who has been the driving force behind the SDP, visited Manoharpur for the first time as a Congress leader. "During his multiple visits here, Jairam Ramesh never did a single meeting under the Congress' banner within Saranda. He wanted people to see the development first. But now, whatever he says, the people will be willing to do," said Sushil Barla, general secretary of the district unit of the Congress on the eve of Jairam's visit.

By the time the minister arrived the next morning to campaign for his party's candidate Chitrasen Sinku, less than 10 people from Digha panchayat - at the heart of the SDP - had made it to the meeting. Jairam addressed a motley crowd which mostly comprised the residents of Manoharpur town. Local Congress leaders blame poor communication; villagers point out infighting within the party meant that no transportation was arranged for the people of the area, who live more than 50 km from Manoharpur.

Another issue that could cripple the Congress in the region is the rumour that the party has decided to extend tacit support to Geeta Kora, wife of former chief minister Madhu. That the Congress has a lot of work to do is obvious from the results of the 2009 polls - its candidate came third with 95,604 votes; Madhu Kora won by polling 2.47 lakhs. During conversations with villagers, this reporter noticed a number of them did not know when the elections would be and those who did knew only the name of Madhu Kora, who is from Jagannathpur, adjacent the SDP area: the Congress faces the onerous task of educating this new electorate about its candidate. At least four polling booths were shifted within Saranda for security reasons. This means, for example, that the people of Kumdi will now have to travel 28 km to vote in Chotanagara.

Of course, a number of villages - most notably populated by adivasi Christians, like Digha - have always voted for the Congress. "We will vote for the Congress this time, too. But we expect more from the party," said an angry Niyaran Topno, the Munda of Digha. He was angry because the CRPF was offering only Rs. 120 to labourers who helped clear the area around a helipad for the movement of poll officials. "Even the MNREGA offers Rs. 138 a day. This is the same attitude adopted by contractors, who are also offering Rs. 120 for SDP work," he said.

Incomplete work could actually end up backfiring on the Congress. "None of the Additional Rozgar Sewaks - a man and a woman - appointed in each village have received their Rs. 3,000 pay in the last 14 months," said Jablun Dodray, who holds the position for Digha. He plans to vote for the Congress. Ten Integrated Development Centres, where multiple government offices would be located, were planned; only the one at Digha has been completed and no other is in the works, even. "I will be the first to accept that work has been slow: only five of 11 roads have been built. However, the work must go on, we cannot let it pause," said minister Ramesh at Manoharpur.

There is also a fear of what lies ahead. "Nineteen mining MoUs were signed within Saranda; they are in various stages of clearances. People have always worried whether the SDP will clear the way for mining here," said a political leader. Madhu Kora, for one, is in support of mining: "The constituency is spread over 6000-7000 sq kms and is a tough challenge for a legislator. However, if mining were to start here, it would help the people with jobs," he said. Rayal Nag, one of the 200 selected from Saranda as part of the SDP under a SAIL-sponsored for an ITI course in Orissa's Rourkela too, wants a job. "If mines open, I might get a job with the degree I am earning," said Nag, who hails from Digha.

In adjacent Porahat, they look at Saranda and hope development will reach at some point. In some ways, Porahat is worse off than Saranda - for instance, Maoists forced to leave the latter took refuge in the former. A police station, block office, residential girls' school and community health centre have been approved in unelectrified Gudri block, but Maoist presence means nothing has comee up. "My people have done their bit. I donated five acres for the block office, others gave land for the rest. It's a two-day ordeal to go to the Sonua block, which still functions as our block office," said Paulus Barjo, Gudri's Munda.

Four of the six panchayat mukhiyas in Gudri now live away from their homes after the Maoists murdered Bimal Lomga, mukhiya of Tomdela in 2011 for being a Congress supporter. "We are like frogs in a well. We usually vote for the Congress but considered considered boycotting elections this time. Then we decided otherwise - it would have made the politicians avoid us more," said Niral Barjo.

More than the Lok Sabha, the Congress will look to the SDP model to give them victories in the assembly election, scheduled to be held either in late 2014 or early 2015. However, the proof of Saranda goes beyond mere winning.

Gently, Kora steps back

Published here
Manoharpur, April 5

Madhu Kora wants the spotlight away from himself. He begins the interview, given on Saturday in West Singhbhum district's Manoharpur town, by saying with a smile and folded palms, "Better if you meet the Jai Bharat Samanta Party's candidate and interact with her. She will be here on the 10th [of April]."

Kora is of course referring to wife Geeta Kora (30), also the MLA from his former constituency Jagannathpur and a party he founded to serve them both. After ensuring his wife took over his assembly constituency while he went to Delhi, the outgoing MP of Singhbhum - on bail in all three cases and yet to be convicted - now wants her to take over his current position too, as he tackles investigations by multiple agencies into his financial assets as well as the 2006-'08 stint as chief minister.

So, is Kora retiring from politics? "No, no. No question of that. I will remain active and work for the people of the area. I will keep trying to make their lives better," he said. He is still his party's star campaigner and was in Manoharpur at eight in the morning, walking through the town, asking for votes. He later sat under a canopy outside his party's office - much more elaborate than the adjacent Congress campaign office - interacted with people in the Ho dialect, blessed children and even signed autographs.

However, there is an air of withdrawal about him: a desperation to be away from the public eye. "Yes, there were talks with the Congress to facilitate Geeta's joining the party. But that did not work out," he said. Then, after a pause: "Not me. Just Geeta." There are rumours that Congress, which has fielded its own candidate here, will extend tacit support to Geeta - but Union Minister Jairam Ramesh, who addressed a meeting in town later in the day, rejected the notion.

Kora is sure where his loyalties lie: "My thinking is more aligned with the UPA than the BJP." When pressed about his thoughts on Narendra Modi, he said, "He thinks his Gujarat model is applicable everywhere. There is a zameen-aasmaan difference between Gujarat and Jharkhand. I have been to Gujarat and have seen the pitiable condition of adivasis there."

Kora is 43; he is no longer the 35-year-old legislator who went on to become the first Independent chief minister of the country. On bail since July last year, he has visibly put on weight. Silver has made an appearance on his mustache; the hairline has receded with his credibility.

However, Kora retains the ability to smile at adversity like he always has - an almost shy smile, even when posed uncomfortable questions with supporters waiting on him: "The authorities keep pursuing me and the media encourages them. Officials of the Election Commission visited my house earlier this week; the media reported they were from the Income Tax. People allege Madhu Kora gets votes by spending money; the people will give them an answer."

Koda Nemesis Joins BSP

Ranchi, March 10
This was published here: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/oraon-joins-bsp-to-contest-from-ranchi-ls-seat/

Durga Oraon, whose Public Interest Litigation was the reason the Jharkhand High Court initiated action against former chief minister Madhu Koda in 2008, joined the BSP on Monday and will contest from the Ranchi Lok Sabha seat.

He joined in the presence of Brijlal Khabri, the party's Jharkhand incharge.

Oraon (40), the chairperson of the Jharkhand Against Corruption movement, had been approached by the Aam Aadmi Party. The AAP saw him as an ideal candidate to lead the party in Jharkhand, but talks went nowhere. "Someone from the AAP had come to meet me at home. After that, no one contacted me. The AAP in Jharkhand is over; there is no enthusiasm anymore," said Oraon.

He was known as Durga Munda before his activism days, had contested the 2013 Ranchi Municipal Corporation's Mayoral elections. Following the seizure of money allegedly intended for distribution among voters, the election was called off despite voting having taken place. A re-poll has not yet taken place.

On Monday, Oraon claimed that Mayawati's outlook on social justice had attracted him. "I have been fighting for justice. What Mayawatiji has done is the same - to get rid of social inequalities that exist around us," he said, adding that the corruption charges against his new leader did not worry him.

Oraon was even given a security detail and took extreme measures to protect his whereabouts in 2008 after he filed the PIL against Koda. The change in surname was made in the PIL to protect himself. That PIL led to a CBI inquiry, and the arrest of Koda and three of his ministers.

TMC wants Jharkhand

Ranchi, March 7
This was published here: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/in-jharkhand-trinamool-pushes-for-space-dents-jmm/99/

In its quest to emerge as the largest regional party in the 16th Lok Sabha, the All India Trinamool Congress is making an aggressive push into Jharkhand.

Even before the formation of its state unit, the party has managed to capture its first legislators here, convincing two single-MLA-parties to merge with it. This, on top of getting Shibu Soren's younger brother and JMM's Bokaro district president Lalu Soren on board.

After Bandhu Tirkey and Chamra Linda - since declared the party's candidates for Ranchi and Lohardaga respectively - it is as if the floodgates opened. The name of almost every leader likely to be ignored by their respective parties in ticket distribution have been associated with the TMC - Chandra Shekhar "Dadai" Dubey and Stephen Marandi of the Congress, and Paulus Surin of the JMM among them.

Some of these individuals are likely to stay with their parties, but the TMC does not deny it has been talking them. So much so, political parties across the state are waiting with pregnant indignation for the second candidates' list of the TMC, expected on Sunday.

All this, from a party that was widely derided for a poorly-attended rally in Ranchi on January 11. The party's Rajya Sabha MP K.D. Singh, who has since resigned from his Jharkhand seat, was the main organiser. That day also marked his first official event in Jharkhand since being elected in 2010. Singh, chairman emeritus of the Chandigarh-based Alchemist group, won as a JMM candidate under controversial circumstances before going over to the TMC in a matter of months.

The TMC appointed a state convenor in Dilip Chatterjee on February 18. "The Ranchi rally was not very important. What mattered was a February 8 rally in Dhanbad, which was well attended," said Chatterjee. He also handles the Ranchi district office; TMC now has functioning units in Jamshedpur, Dhanbad and Bokaro districts. "We want to contest all 14 Lok Sabha seats and have finalised names for 5-6 of them. For the state assembly [elections, scheduled for 2015] too, we will have candidates for all seats," added Chatterjee.

Before TMC, Chatterjee was a general secretary of the JMM. "I left when JMM started losing its way. Shibu Soren was increasingly silenced inside the party," was all he was willing to say. A former central committee member of the JMM said that Chatterjee's presence could draw JMM members to the TMC.

The TMC then, could be the first beneficiary of an anti-Hemant Soren feeling that has been building up within the JMM. Older leaders have felt alienated since Hemant's rise began, surrounded by a coterie called the class of 2005 in these pages. These were people who associated themselves with the JMM the year Shibu Soren first became chief minister; the same year when Hemant first contested to the state assembly, and lost.

Apart from the big names, there are early indications that grassroots leaders could move to the JMM. Not merely Bengali-speaking individuals, but also adivasi leaders are moving toward to TMC. "Only this morning did I get a call from an important functionary in the Ramgarh district unit of the JMM, asking for a TMC leader's number," said an individual who handles media relations for a potential Lok Sabha candidate who belongs neither to the JMM nor TMC. Shibu Soren's elder brother Rajaram Soren too, has indicated that he would not mind a move to the TMC.

The JMM comes in the TMC's firing line as the former's stronghold, the Santhal Pargana region, is contiguous with West Bengal. It made its first prominent recruitment in the state there five years back, inducting anti-displacement activist and party's state women's unit convenor Muni Hansda from Dumka. She could be the TMC's candidate from the namesake constituency - currently held by Shibu Soren - but reportedly faces competition from Lalu Soren.

The TMC's strong bid could have an effect in Assam, where the party is trying to gain influence among the tea tribes - originally of Jharkhand, among whom the JMM has supporters.

This scattergun approach to collecting individuals has however resulted in an explosive mix: there is Muni Hansda, who has been a crusader against the mining companies in Dumka and Pakur; Lalu Soren, whose most important quality is that he is Shibu's brother; Bandhu Tirkey, a minister in the Madhu Koda cabinet who faces charges under the Prevention of Corruption Act and Chamra Linda, legally declared an absconder from 2008 to 2013 in an assault case. As if this was not enough, there are reports in the regional media that Geeta Koda, legislator and wife of the former CM, could join the TMC.

The TMC in Jharkhand is hardly an advertisement the party's brand ambassador Anna Hazare would want to be featured in. On the other hand, it is an indicator of the scale of Mamata Banerjee's ambitions.